Value prediction with tensorflow and python
I have a dataset that contains a list of stock prices. I need to use tensorflow and python to predict the closing price.
Q1: I have the following code that takes the first 2000 records as training and 2001 to 20,000 records as a test, but I donβt know how to change the code to make a prediction of the closing price today and 1 day later ??? Please advise!
#!/usr/bin/env python2
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import tensorflow as tf
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def feature_scaling(input_pd, scaling_meathod):
if scaling_meathod == 'z-score':
scaled_pd = (input_pd - input_pd.mean()) / input_pd.std()
elif scaling_meathod == 'min-max':
scaled_pd = (input_pd - input_pd.min()) / (input_pd.max() -
input_pd.min())
return scaled_pd
def input_reshape(input_pd, start, end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_features):
temp_pd = input_pd[start-1: end+batch_size-1]
output_pd = map(lambda y : temp_pd[y:y+batch_size], xrange(0, end-start+1, batch_shift))
output_temp = map(lambda x : np.array(output_pd[x]).reshape([-1]), xrange(len(output_pd)))
output = np.reshape(output_temp, [-1, batch_size, n_features])
return output
def target_reshape(input_pd, start, end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_step_ahead, m_steps_pred):
temp_pd = input_pd[start+batch_size+n_step_ahead-2: end+batch_size+n_step_ahead+m_steps_pred-2]
print temp_pd
output_pd = map(lambda y : temp_pd[y:y+m_steps_pred], xrange(0, end-start+1, batch_shift))
output_temp = map(lambda x : np.array(output_pd[x]).reshape([-1]), xrange(len(output_pd)))
output = np.reshape(output_temp, [-1,1])
return output
def lstm(input, n_inputs, n_steps, n_of_layers, scope_name):
num_layers = n_of_layers
input = tf.transpose(input,[1, 0, 2])
input = tf.reshape(input,[-1, n_inputs])
input = tf.split(0, n_steps, input)
with tf.variable_scope(scope_name):
cell = tf.nn.rnn_cell.BasicLSTMCell(num_units=n_inputs)
cell = tf.nn.rnn_cell.MultiRNNCell([cell]*num_layers)
output, state = tf.nn.rnn(cell, input, dtype=tf.float32) yi1
output = output[-1]
return output
feature_to_input = ['open price', 'highest price', 'lowest price', 'close price','turnover', 'volume','mean price']
feature_to_predict = ['close price']
feature_to_scale = ['volume']
sacling_meathod = 'min-max'
train_start = 1
train_end = 1000
test_start = 1001
test_end = 20000
batch_size = 100
batch_shift = 1
n_step_ahead = 1
m_steps_pred = 1
n_features = len(feature_to_input)
lstm_scope_name = 'lstm_prediction'
n_lstm_layers = 1
n_pred_class = 1
learning_rate = 0.1
EPOCHS = 1000
PRINT_STEP = 100
read_data_pd = pd.read_csv('./stock_price.csv')
temp_pd = feature_scaling(input_pd[feature_to_scale],sacling_meathod)
input_pd[feature_to_scale] = temp_pd
train_input_temp_pd = input_pd[feature_to_input]
train_input_nparr = input_reshape(train_input_temp_pd,
train_start, train_end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_features)
train_target_temp_pd = input_pd[feature_to_predict]
train_target_nparr = target_reshape(train_target_temp_pd, train_start, train_end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_step_ahead, m_steps_pred)
test_input_temp_pd = input_pd[feature_to_input]
test_input_nparr = input_reshape(test_input_temp_pd, test_start, test_end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_features)
test_target_temp_pd = input_pd[feature_to_predict]
test_target_nparr = target_reshape(test_target_temp_pd, test_start, test_end, batch_size, batch_shift, n_step_ahead, m_steps_pred)
tf.reset_default_graph()
x_ = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [None, batch_size, n_features])
y_ = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [None, 1])
lstm_output = lstm(x_, n_features, batch_size, n_lstm_layers, lstm_scope_name)
W = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_features, n_pred_class]))
b = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_pred_class]))
y = tf.matmul(lstm_output, W) + b
cost_func = tf.reduce_mean(tf.square(y - y_))
train_op = tf.train.GradientDescentOptimizer(learning_rate).minimize(cost_func)
optimizer = tf.train.GradientDescentOptimizer(learning_rate).minimize(loss, global_step=global_step)
init = tf.initialize_all_variables()
with tf.Session() as sess:
sess.run(init)
for ii in range(EPOCHS):
sess.run(train_op, feed_dict={x_:train_input_nparr, y_:train_target_nparr})
if ii % PRINT_STEP == 0:
cost = sess.run(cost_func, feed_dict={x_:train_input_nparr, y_:train_target_nparr})
print 'iteration =', ii, 'training cost:', cost
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Q-1: You must change your LSTM parameter to return a sequence of size two that will be predicted for that day and day.
Q-2 it's clear that your model is data- reinforcing , which is so obvious with your test data 90%! You should have a more balanced ratio as suggested in the previous answer.
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Very simple prediction (score or aka inference) comes from running an input through the front pass only and collecting a score for each input vector. This is the same process as testing. The difference lies in the four stages of using the model:
- Train: Learn from the training dataset; adjust the weight if necessary.
- Test: evaluate the performance of the model; if accuracy converges, stop training.
- Validate: evaluate the accuracy of the trained model. If it doesn't meet the admission criteria, change something and start with training.
- Predict: you passed the validation - release the model for use by the intended application.
All four steps follow the same forward movement; learning includes backpropagation; others do not. Just follow the process forward and you will get the result form you need.
I'm worried about your data section: only 10% for training, 90% for testing, and not for validation. A more typical split is 50-30-20, or something in this general area.
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